A Geographic view of voting patterns in the recent US Presidential Election season

Much has been made recently in regarding the demographics of the contested 2016 US Presidential Election. Many studies have thrown up graphics that claimed that the Great Democrat ‘Blue Wall’ had been breached by the successful Republican candidate Donald Trump’s candidature. Swathes of Statewide Blue voting patterns were regularly used by both sides to reflect either the electoral ‘security’ of the Democratic North East and the West Coast Democrat heartlands or the task ahead for the Republicans. The Republican candidate claimed a landslide win within the electoral college, whereas the Democrat contender claims the raw demographic majority by some 2 million votes. Both a correct to some degree in their claims but the most electorally significant position has to be measured at the County sized electoral map. The ‘local ‘ county political landscape tells a very sober tale for the Democrat Party.

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The Electoral College was a mechanism that prevented high density urban areas exercising overarching political control, over the more sparsely populated areas of the US, thus ensuring national geographic unity. Looking at the electoral map through the lens of all of the counties within the US, a very interesting picture emerges. Though the Democrats claim the raw numbers by a margin of 2 million votes, the US counties map shows that Democrat support is extremely patchy and restricted to about half a dozen or so small, highly urbanised, geographic regions across the nation.

Fine grained analysis was specifically stopped at the ‘county level’, as the finer the grain of organisational analysis, right down to individual polling stations, the worse the picture looked for the Democrat party and the more isolated and patchy their support became. In an effort to give some balance, it was decided to stop at the County Level, as this is where most small scale, formal local politics, occur.

The vast geographic swath of the United States voted for the Republican Presidential candidate as well as for the vast majority of State Governors and State & County Administrators. The Democrat Party, once the party of the poor Southern agrarian States has morphed into the party of the urban poor in the North East, the West Coast, the anarchistic urban wasteland cities of the Great Lakes, and the pan-handle sunbelt retirees of Florida. Even a passing analysis down at county level shows that Californian Democrat support is isolated to the greater Los Angles and surrounding counties and around the urban bureaucratic State capital Sacramento. Likewise Democrat support at the County local politics level in Oregon and Washington State are only apparent deep inside urban counties.

The finer the geographic analysis of voting patterns the more the Democrats are shown to be ghettoised in either isolated urban wastelands or in rich urban ‘gilded cage’ elitist ghettos, complete with gated communities and private security. This suggests that many voting Democrat either live in crude dangerous cityscape wastelands or in rich urban ‘ideological bubble’ communities, remote from the realities of life in the 21st, Century US. This separation between the rich educated urban elites, and the denizens forced by economics and education to endure dangerous broken urban environments, boded ill for future Democrat support. Both groups of Democrat voters live in regions of demographic collapse. The isolated gilded-cage ghettoised elites are way below their population replacement levels and the poor, ethnic, urban wasteland Democrat support, abort the bulk of their high demographic reproduction statistic to below replacement levels.

It would appear some time in the 1980s this catastrophic demographic decline was identified by the Democrats when they instituted a covert policy of a ‘replacement demographic’ from outside the US as the only source of future Democrat success in electoral politics. This has now left the Democrat Party in a serious strategic bind. With their electoral support trapped between an isolated educated rich elite, living in their ideological bubble, supported by an ill educated, anarchistic, urban, ethnic poor, living in appalling conditions in just a few isolated regions, the Democrats are highly exposed to electoral Armageddon. The Democrat urban elites will never vote to change their gilded cage ghetto existence, and are irrelevant to changing political initiatives. Not so for the Democrat urban poor demographic!

If the Trump Presidency can pull off just part of what it claimed was planned, during the election, a significant proportion of the Democrat ethnic poor may ‘flip’. The key areas of policy that will achieve this ‘flip’ are education and industry. In both education and industry Trump has appointed ‘disruptive‘ Secretaries to his Cabinet. The success of the Trump presidency may very well hang on the success or failure of these two key government departments. If Trump’s Cabinet appointments in education and industry can bring real relief to the isolated ethnic poor in about half a dozen urban Democrat environments, they will define the Trump presidency.

2 thoughts on “A Geographic view of voting patterns in the recent US Presidential Election season

  1. One would hope that you are correct kenny 1. Based on the selection of Trump Cabinet posts to date, it would appear that he is selecting ‘doers’ rather than ‘talkers’, with professional backgrounds in nuanced leadership & decision making. So far it would appear that Trump hasn’t put a foot wrong in selecting the very best in filling posts in his Cabinet. Even to the extent of passing over old friends and colleagues for senior posts.

    I think we are witnessing a different type of Presidential appointee that will be driven by programatic hard headed decision making, rather than playing the ‘Beltway shuffle’ and promoting friends over serious talent. It remains to be seen whether Trump can resist the siren call of the power elite that who go by the ‘go along to get along’ maxim, and enrich themselves in the process. Trump is already a billionaire and has nothing further to prove, so we can only hope that he actually means what he has said and has the will to carry it through.

  2. Recent analysis would support the conclusion that a successful education and urban development program will indeed ensure an 8 year term for Trump and a future monopoly of power for the republicans. However, in an uncertain world only time will tell. For what its worth I am optimistic that Trump will deliver in spades.

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