The Game of Thrones analogy appears to hold in the complicated politics of the Middle East ….. but with more incest!
I know that you have all heard that old phrase, “Its complicated” before, correct?
Well, in the case of what is going on in Saudi Arabia, which includes the coming war with Lebanon and Iran, it is complicated.
Allow me, if I can, explain it in simple terms.
King Salman Getty Image
King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud is 81 years old (ascended the throne in 2012 when his brother died), his time on the throne is almost over. His hand picked heir is Mohammad bin Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud. Mohammad Salman was not originally the first in line for the throne, his brother Muhammad bin Nayef was (due not to age, but which of King Salman’s wives was his mother, Mohammad Salman is actually older), but Nayef did something unreported that cause King Salman to depose him and appoint Mohammad Salman as the new heir apparent on 21 June 2017. The former Crown Prince and heir apparent Muhammad bin Nayef survived four assassination attempts, the 2009 third attempt apparently seriously injured him, not that it was admitted in the press. He has reportedly acquired an addiction to pain medication but none the less commanded the forces of the Saudi Defence forces in the stalemated war against Iran’s surrogate the al Houthi in Yemen. He was also linked to the leaks of the Panama Papers and this did him no favours in maintaining his position as Crown Prince. He was deposed as Crown Prince by the current Defence Minister Prince Mohammad bin Salman in mid 2017.
But it will not look like the orderly pattern of descent which characterized the conflict of 1861-65. It will appear more like the Yugoslavia break-up, or the Russian and Chinese civil wars of the 20th Century.
It will appear as an evolving chaos.
And the next US civil war, though it yet may be arrested to a degree by the formal hand of centralized government, will destabilize many other nation-states, including the People’s Republic of China (PRC).
It may, in other words, be short-lived simply because the uprising will probably not be based upon the decisions of constituent states (which, in the US Civil War, created a break-away confederacy), acting within their own perception of a legal process. It is more probable that the 21st Century event would contage as a gradual breakdown of law and order.
Lt. Gen McMaster the Trump White House’s recent National Security Advisor appears to have slipped through the Trump Cabinet assessment process, when in fact he has quite a Progressive resume. Given that McMaster was nominated for his current post by none other than US Senator John McCain (R), a major opponent to the Trump health care bill, should have given the Trump administration cause to pause and reconsider.
White House National Security Adviser H.R. McMaster served at a UK-based think tank financed by a controversial, George Soros-funded group identified by the Obama White House as central in helping to sell the Iran nuclear deal to the public and news media.
From September 2006 to February 2017, McMaster is listed as a member of International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), where he served as consulting senior fellow. The IISS describes itself as a “world-leading authority on global security, political risk and military conflict.”
The IISS has been supportive of the Obama administration-brokered 2015 nuclear accord with Iran, and the group has repeatedly hit back against charges that Tehran has violated the agreement.
McMaster himself has been accused of purging the National Security Council of hardliners on Iran, and he is seen as a leading proponent of the Iran nuclear accord within the Trump administration. He has reportedly urged the White House to recertify Iran’s compliance with the Iran nuclear deal.