On the brink of Article 50’s implementation: BREXIT HAPPENED FOR A REASON: EU MEMBERS LIKE POLAND OUGHT TO REASSESS

Polish Prime Minister Beata Szydło wrote a curiously desperate letter of last resort to the European Union to prevent the re-election of her Eurocrat predecessor, Donald Tusk. She appealed to democracy and national sovereignty. This must have sounded like a joke to the Eurocratic team that decided whom to choose. But all was in vain. Poland alone cast the dissenting vote. Representatives of twenty-seven other EU countries voted for the reelection of Tusk.

Polish Prime Minister Beata Szydło

 

Poland’s former liberal prime minister Donald Tusk of the Civic Platform (PO) party has just been reelected as the president of the European Council (EC). The election has occurred against the explicit wishes of Poland’s current populist government of the Law and Justice Party (PiS). On the one hand, Tusk’s victory has triggered much gloating in the Europhoric, globalist, and German circles. On the other hand, it has prompted confused fury and embarrassment in the Polish ruling circles.

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More nonsense doom and gloom from the always politically predictable ‘warmists’

Climate Change is more real, and dangerous, and worrying than ever before because lots of bad weather has happened around the world.
Now that I have handily summarised the World Meteorological Organization’s (WMO) latest report — WMO Statement on the State of Global Climate in 2016  <http://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/1189_Statement2016_EN.pdf> — you have no need to read it.

NOAA

That’s because the report’s only intended function is as a propaganda device to prop up the global climate alarmist narrative.

You can tell this because of certain key phrases that have been embedded in the “Executive Summary.”

Phrases like:


Warming continued in 2016, setting a new temperature record of approximately 1.1 °C above the pre-industrial period…

…against a background of long-term climate change….

Severe droughts affected agriculture and yield production in many parts of the world, particularly in southern and eastern Africa and parts of Central America, where several million people experienced food insecurity and hundreds of thousands were displaced internally…

Detection and attribution studies have demonstrated that human influence on the climate has been a main driver behind the unequivocal warming of the global climate system…

Human influence has also led to significant regional temperature increases at the continental and subcontinental levels. Shifts of the temperature distribution to warmer regimes are expected to bring about increases in the frequency and intensity of extremely warm events.


But most of this stuff just comes from the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report, which was published in 2014. What, exactly, is its relevance to a new report on last year’s weather?

Short answer: none — but this was never the point.

 

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BREXIT Article 50 trigger to be pulled by the end of March 2017

The British Prime Minister Theresa May has finally won the power to trigger the BREXIT Article 50, after the Lords, upper house, backed down and passed the Brexit Bill. Two crucial votes in the House of Commons allowed May to trigger the bill to pull the UK out of the European Union. It was thought that if the ‘soft’ option was blocked, either by rebel Tories in the Commons, or by the Lords, then May would go with the ‘nuclear’ Hard Exit Option on BREXIT. Earlier Tory MPs knuckled down to the will of the Whips and withdrew their amendment, guaranteeing the rights of EU nationals currently working in the UK. It also gave short shift, calling the bluff of EU threats against British workers currently domiciled in the EU countries. The BREXIT triggering bill backed the May Government 335 to 287, majority 48.

AP

The Commons MPs also defeated a second amendment on the timetabling of votes at the end of the negotiation. After a long debate the Lords agreed not to contradict the will of the elected chamber. A Tory peer, Viscount Hailsham, who had previously voted in favour of the amendment  said tonight: “We have asked the Commons to think again, they have thought again, they have not taken our advice, and our role now I believe is not to insist.”

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The US Fed’s plan for Rate Hikes and the resulting fallout in 2017

Donald Trump’s election has increased the expectation further Federal Reserve rate hikes. The recent hike in the Fed’s interest rates, only the second such hike in the past decade, may be the foretaste of up to Three further rate hikes during 2017.

FRB

 

Trump’s  campaign platform was based on stimulus policies that would both increase economic activity — through infrastructure investment,  corporate tax  cut to 15%,raise tariff barriers to imports resulting in  boosting prices domestically. Such plans on the back of interest rate rises are recipes for higher inflation.

One of the Fed’s key jobs is to stabilise prices , by adjusting interest rates. In fact interest rate manipulation is one of the few remaining effective tools left in its financial tool kit. Higher cost of money however nominally brings with it inflationary pressures that could compound and set of an inflationary spiral. The chances of that however are remote given the record low levels of current inflationary pressure.

Given the likelihood of three planned modest rate rises during 2017, the chances of an inflationary spike is remote however, for the remainder of Federal Reserve Board Chair Janet Yellen’s term. In 2018, her position will be up for renewal, raising the possibility that she might be replaced by a Fed Chairman less receptive to interest rate hikes, particularly if the Trump administration proves to be more interested in  sustaining growth. For the time being, the Trump economic policy path to higher spending, higher inflation and higher rates resulting in a stronger dollar appears to be set.

The interest rate gap between the United States and other major currencies like Japan and the eurozone, both of which have negative interest rates and are deep in bond purchasing, is noteworthy. Such Interest Rate divergence among the world’s major central banks is historically rare, and as the disparity grows, it will boost the gains to be made by borrowing in the lower-rate countries and lending in the higher-rate ones, such as the US, especially if the US economy ‘takes off’.

Such flows of capital among the world’s major centers can be destabilising to weaker economies as was shown with the EU after the recent US Fed rate hike.  The Bank of Japan in particular stepped back from its  quantitative easing and appears now set on a  bond-buying program.

The European Central Bank has reduced its rate of bond purchases, sen as an attempt to reduce the divergence effect ahead of further U.S. rate hikes in an effort to keep the gap under control. The ECB will likely fail.

That said, each central bank also had other reasons for its strategy shift, from the dwindling supply of bonds available for purchase by the Japanese bank to the overall improvement in global economic circumstances and increasing signs of general inflation as commodity prices have stabilized.

In fact, the improving global economic climate has allowed the market to largely ride out developments that at the beginning of 2016 seemed to be filling it with panic. Last December’s U.S. rate hike made China’s yuan look overvalued, especially following the move in 2015 by the People’s Bank of China to break its currency’s dollar peg. The resulting rapid increase in capital outflows prompted the Chinese central bank to spend $100 billion a month in foreign exchange reserves to staunch the bleeding. With under $3 trillion left in China’s reserves and with $2.4 trillion ‘ringfenced’ to underwrite  China’s $16 trillion in loans, the Chinese economy is fast running out of financial defences. Especially so with the prospects of strategic instability in the South China Sea, complicating China’s economic options.

In the wake of Italy’s failed constitutional referendum, and with debt repayment scheduling again approaching, with the banks still vulnerable to instability, the economic situation in Southern Europe is fraught. Populist political elections are due across the EU over the next 18 months, adding to the sense of approaching political and fiscal crisis once more. The shock of Brexit could be followed by more ‘falling dominoes’ as the EU looks vulnerable, at a time when the German economic powerhouse looks weak and divided.

With Italy’s banks now at an extremely fragile point, and with China’s $3 trillion in reserves (effectively only $0.6 trillion available) now 25 percent lower than they were in 2014, countries around the world are hoping that another financial storm will not descend. If it does the US will weather the financial maelstrom better than most.

America’s National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration : Still playing fast & loose

U.S. Congress under the new Trump Administration is now set to investigate shonky climate reports posted by NOAA in the ongoing weather war of Global Warming … or NOT.


The United States Congress is about beginning investigations into  America’s National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), following revelations by a recently retired NOAA ‘whistle blower’,  senior climate scientist veteran Dr John Bates, that his agency wilfully faked evidence, by claiming wrongly that global temperatures had soared over the past 20 years. This contradicted earlier evidence of a 20-year pause, but fitted into the Climate Warming political meme being pushed by some US and European government agencies for Progressive political philosophical reasons. Access to public funding and ongoing research grants were also given as reasons for faking the Climate data.

The NOAA report, strongly endorsed by the Obama Administration just prior to the recent Paris Climate Conference, was used to justify the PCC demand for ongoing cuts in global CO2 emissions.

Dr Bates was one of the top climatologists at the NOAA. He was principal scientist with the U.S. National Climate Data Centre, part of the NOAA, and was involved in climate modelling and data presentation. His technical expertise lies in atmospheric sciences, and his research interests include satellite observations of the global water and energy cycle, air-sea interactions, and climate variability.

Bates has written over 45 publications and was elected to the 15-member board of directors of the American Geophysical Union (AGU), an organisation that he joined in 1986.  Dr Bates revealed that he had consently drawn attention to these data falsefication issues while working for NOAA, but was constently over-ridden, and threatened with professional ending censure if he exposed the data set illegal manipulation.

Dr. Thomas Karl was until last year director of the NOAA section that produced climate data – the National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI). The lead author of a paper, disputing the Climate Pause, was rushed through the NOAA and the NCEI by Dr. Karl to meet the scheduled expose at the Paris Climate Conference, intended to influence National and International deliberations on climate policy”.

Dr. Karl, apparently indulged in data manipulation through ‘cherry picking’ data that maximised warming models and minimised access to raw data documentation … in an effort to discredit the notion of a global warming Pause.

While working for NOAA, Dr Bates objected to the Karl Report, arguing that it had not been properly prepared, and that its conclusions were unsound. He was over-ridden by a clique of activist Progressives within NOAA who manipulated the data behind two modelling sets.

NOAA’s 2015 paper was based on two new sets of temperature data – one containing measurements of temperatures at the planet’s surface on land, the other at the surface of the seas. Both datasets were flawed.

The land temperature dataset used by the study was afflicted by devastating bugs in its software that rendered its findings “unstable”. The paper relied on a preliminary version of the data that was never approved or verified. NOAA has now decided that the sea dataset as well will have to be replaced and substantially revised just 18 months after it was issued, because it used unreliable methods that overstated the speed of warming. The revised data will show both lower temperatures and a slower rate in the recent warming trend.
Initially, the U.S. House of Representatives Committee on Science, Space and Technology approach to NOAA, found superficial co-operation. As the probe went on however with dubious data and flawed processes that co-operation dried up. As the probe progressed NOAA repeatedly refused to supply requested information, even under demands from the Congress. Cover was provided by the Obama Administration by refusing to enforce the law, thanks to a hostile Attorney General.

Congressional Committee on Science, Space and Technology chairman Lamar Smith issued a statement which said: “Over the course of the committee’s oversight, NOAA refused to comply with the inquiries, baselessly arguing that Congress is not authorised to request communications from federal scientists.”

“This culminated in the issuance of a congressional subpoena, with which NOAA also failed to comply. During the course of the investigation, the committee heard from whistleblowers who confirmed that, among other flaws in the study, it was rushed for publication to support President Obama’s climate-change agenda.”

CSST Chairman, Congressman  Smith said, the Karl report “retroactively altered historical climate-change data, which resulted in the elimination of a well-known climate phenomenon known as the “climate-change hiatus”.

“The hiatus was a period between 1998 and 2013 where the rate of global temperatures growth slowed markedly to the point of stopping.

“This fact has always been a thorn in the side of climate-change alarmists, as it became difficult to disprove the slowdown in warming. The Karl study refuted the hiatus and rewrote climate-change history to claim that warming had in fact been occurring.

The Congressional Committee chairman welcomed Dr Bates’ public statement and thanked him “for courageously stepping forward to tell the truth about NOAA’s senior officials playing fast and loose with the data in order to meet a politically predetermined conclusion”.

We now await the new President, Donald Trump, who it is hoped will  properly investigate the apparent hiatus in warming.