Whether you believe that the Obama Administration is driven purely by ideology or not, one must admit that Obama is nothing if not consistent in his underlying drivers behind his foreign policy plans. They are:
- A determination to remove the US from the role as the World’s Policemen
- A move away from support to outright antagonism towards the Jewish State
- Determination to rewrite the century old US Foreign Affairs Middle East strategy in one comprehensive sweep
- A move away from trying to second guess the Sunni-Shi’a war of attrition and choosing a regional champion (Iran) to take over the stabilization of the ME
- Decoupling Israel from the Western Alliance
- Establishing a new era of isolationist America and rolling back of the US Defence establishment
- Re writing the playbook of the State Department ‘Orientalists’ and trashing a century of US diplomacy in the ME
What is less clear is the thought behind the possible unintended consequences of such a massive policy shift. These may include:
- A Middle Eastern nuclear arms race between Sunni Saudi Arabia / Egypt and Shi’a Iran.
- The entry of Turkey as a Sunni regional power directly opposed to Shi’a Iranian ME hegemony.
- With the US security guarantees absent the possibility of nuclear conflict between India and Pakistan
- A possible Regional nuclear exchange between Iran/ Saudi Arabia; Israel / Iran; Turkey / Iran; Egypt / Turkey; and India / Pakistan
- The rise of a Middle Eastern Regional hegemon resulting in disruption in Oil production
- Total Regional nuclear conflict as the US security guarantee to Israel evaporates
- Nuclear terrorism in the Eurozone as well as the US as nukes proliferate
- The Sunni / Shi’a war of attrition turning nuclear
- Israel having to resort to a nuclear first strike philosophy as its only option for survival.
- How the US can deal with a nuclear armed Iran motivated by religious apocalyptic visions of itself.